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Fund Commentary – Quarter in review March 2020

In this extract from the March 2020 Quarterly Commentary, Julian Morrison, CFA, National Key Account Manager reviews the performance of the Allan Gray Australia Funds. Click here to read the full Quarterly Commentary.

Allan Gray Australia Equity Fund

The Australian sharemarket fell heavily during the first quarter of 2020. After peaking in late February, fear regarding the impact of COVID-19 became panic, resulting in widespread and indiscriminate selling as described earlier in this report. The broad market, as measured by the S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index, fell 23.4% for the quarter.

The Allan Gray Australia Equity Fund underperformed its S&P/ASX 300 Accumulation Index benchmark by 10.1% for the quarter. The largest detractor from performance for the quarter was our overweight position in the Energy sector, which includes stocks such as Woodside Petroleum and Oil Search. Another large factor in the underperformance was the absence of Healthcare exposure. Healthcare was the strongest performing sector for the quarter, but one where we continue to believe valuation risk remains high in general and particularly versus other parts of the market.

Positive contribution to performance came from stock selection within the Consumer Staples sector, with Metcash performing very strongly against the broader market trend. Our lack of exposure to the Real Estate sector was also a positive factor as that sector fell heavily. Though as a result of falling prices, some stocks within that sector have started to look a lot more attractive. Looking through the current panic and indiscriminate selling, we believe the value potential inherent in our energy, gold and other contrarian exposures remains significant.

Allan Gray Australia Balanced Fund

The Allan Gray Australia Balanced Fund underperformed its composite benchmark by 9.0% in the first quarter of 2020. This was largely due to the underperformance of our equity holdings versus the benchmark equity exposure. On the positive side, the Fund’s exposure to gold contributed positively for the quarter. The Fund remains underweight Australian equities and overweight global equities at quarter end.

Around 23.6% of the portfolio is currently invested in fixed income. Here we remain significantly shorter in duration than the benchmark – at below two years versus seven years for the benchmark. This has detracted from relative performance for some time in an environment of falling interest rates, including during the last quarter. However the Fund remains more defensively positioned than the benchmark in terms of both relative and absolute returns, in the event interest rates rise.

Allan Gray Australia Stable Fund

The Allan Gray Australia Stable Fund underperformed its RBA cash rate benchmark by 7.3% during the quarter.

The performance of the Stable Fund is driven by the performance of our favoured Australian share holdings and the decision on how much is invested in shares versus cash. With sharemarkets falling heavily, the Fund also fell during the quarter, though far less than broader sharemarkets as it started the quarter with only 21.1% of its portfolio in shares. This was reduced further to 16.7% at around the time of the market peak in late February, with the remainder held in cash and term deposits.

With shares falling quite dramatically from that point, the Fund has added significantly to not only maintain that share allocation, but to raise it further to around 22.2% at the time of release of this report in mid-April (this can be seen in Graph 1, which shows our allocation between cash and equities over time). This has been done selectively, where we have seen the best value, and we continue to look for opportunities.

Graph 1: Stable Fund portfolio weightings – equity allocation rises where we see value in equities

 

Source: Allan Gray, Bloomberg, as at 15 April 2020

 

Julian Morrison holds a Bachelor of Arts (Honours – University of Sheffield) and the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

 

 

Equity Trustees Limited ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975 is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the Allan Gray Australia Equity Fund ARSN 117 746 666, Allan Gray Australia Balanced Fund ARSN 615 145 974, and Allan Gray Australia Stable Fund ARSN 149 681 774 (Allan Gray Funds). Equity Trustees is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited (ABN 22 607 797 615), a publicly listed company on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EQT). Allan Gray Australia Pty Limited ABN 48 112 316 168, AFSL No. 298487 is the investment manager of the Allan Gray Funds. Neither Allan Gray Australia Pty Limited, Equity Trustees Limited nor any of their related parties, their employees or directors, provide any warranty of accuracy or reliability in relation to such information or accepts any liability to any person who relies on it.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. There are risks involved with investing and the value of your investments may fall as well as rise. This represents Allan Gray Australia Pty Limited’s views at a point in time and may provide reasoning or rationale on why we bought or sold a particular security for the Allan Gray Funds or our clients. We may take the opposite view/position from that stated, as our view may change. This insight is not an offer or recommendation, constitutes general advice or information only and not personal financial product, tax, legal, or investment advice. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or individual needs of any particular person and may not be appropriate for you. We have tried to ensure that the information here is accurate in all material respects, but cannot guarantee that it is.

You should consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) before acquiring, holding or disposing of units in an Allan Gray Fund. The PDSs, Target Market Determinations (TMDs) and Minimum Disclosure Documents for South African investors (MDDs) can be obtained from our Forms & Documents page. Each TMD sets out who an investment in the relevant Allan Gray or Orbis Funds might be appropriate for and the circumstances that trigger a review of the TMD.

Managed investment schemes are generally medium to long-term investments. They are traded at prevailing prices and the value of units may go down as well as up. There are risks with investing the Fund and there is no guarantee of repayment of capital or return on your investment. Subject to relevant disclosure documents, managed investments can engage in borrowing and securities lending. A schedule of fees and charges is available in the PDS.